一 | NEW YORK -- Paddy Cosgrave, the chief executive officer of a prominent European tech conference called Web Summit, resigned from his role on Saturday amid backlash for his public statements that suggested Israel was committing war crimes.A spokesperson for Web Summit, which organizes one of the world's largest tech conferences every year, said in an e-mailed statement sent to The Associated Press that it will appoint a new CEO, and the conference will go ahead next month in Lisbon as planned. Cosgrave, the Irish entrepreneur who is also founder of Web Summit, said in a statement Saturday that his personal comments “have become a distraction from the event, and our team, our sponsors, our startups and the people who attend.”“I sincerely apologise again for any hurt I have caused,” he said.Cosgrave’s resignation is a prominent example of the fallout from the Israel-Hamas war that has spilled into workplaces everywhere, as top leaders of prominent companies weigh in with their views while workers complain their voices are not being heard. Islamic rights advocates say much of the corporate response has minimized the suffering in Gaza, where thousands have died in Israeli airstrikes, and created an atmosphere of fear for workers who want to express support for Palestinians. Jewish groups have criticized tepid responses or slow reactions to the Oct. 7 Hamas rampage that killed 1,400 people in Israel and triggered the latest war.Web Summit faced a growing number of industry giants — including Intel, Meta and Google — pulling out of the conference even after Cosgrave released a long message denouncing the Hamas attacks and apologizing for the timing of his initial tweet while defending his overall views on the conflict. Cosgrave posted on his X account, formerly known as Twitter, on Oct. 13 that he was “shocked at the rhetoric and actions of so many Western leaders & governments, with the exception in particular of Ireland’s government, who for once are doing the right thing. ”“War crimes are war crimes even when committed by allies, and should be called out for what they are,” he added.Two days later, he updated his tweet calling “what Hamas did is outrageous and disgusting” but adding, "Israel has a right to defend itself, but it does not, as I have already stated, have a right to break international law." In a later apology that was posted Oct. 17 on the Web Summit blog and shared on his X account, he said, “What is needed at this time is compassion, and I did not convey that,” he said. “My aim is and always has been to strive for peace.”He went on to say that “I also believe that, in defending itself, Israel should adhere to international law and the Geneva Conventions – i.e. not commit war crimes. This belief applies equally to any state in any war. No country should breach these laws, even if atrocities were committed against it.”His last post on X read: “Bye for now. Need some time off this platform.”______Follow Anne D’Innocenzio: http://twitter.com/ADInnocenzio。 8月23日，《大西洋月刊》发表了罗伯特·卡根的震撼文章《伊朗破局》，其观点令华盛顿的智库圈为之沸腾。在这篇文章中，卡根明确指出，未来中东的主导力量不再是美国或以色列，而是伊朗。
二 | 这一大胆的论断，揭示了长期以来美国在中东的军事干预和经济压力最终酿成的逆转：华盛顿在试图制衡伊朗的过程中，不仅未能削弱这个国家的实力，反而让其成为新的地区霸主。 回顾美国与伊朗之间的冲突历程，我们可以看到一个明显的悖论：华盛顿能够在战场上压制伊朗，但却无法实现预期的政治胜利。2026年2月28日，美国与以色列联合发动的大规模打击，初期战果显著，甚至直接对伊朗的高层领导进行了打击。然而，卡根所要传达的信息是——即便如此，这样的军事行动并没有导致伊朗政权的崩溃，反而使得新的领导层迅速接班，依旧维持国家机器的正常运转。 为什么这场战争变得如此复杂？关键在于伊朗所掌握的战略资源，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。
三 | 作为全球最重要的石油运输通道之一，伊朗借助这一点进行反制，展示了其“我虽不能以正面战斗赢你，但我能在关键时刻让你痛苦”的能力。当美国及其盟友深入伊朗内部进行打击时，德黑兰却用灵活的战术让局势升级至全球能源安全的边缘，最终迫使华盛顿选择停手。 在经济的算计上，伊朗使用价值极低的无人机实施进攻，以较低的成本对抗美国高昂的军事装备。美军所付出的代价与伊朗的损失相比，几乎形成了巨大的失衡，令美方不得不重新审视其在区域内的战略布局。显然，美国发现自己比伊朗更怕战争升级，这一现实让华盛顿在后续谈判中不得不屈从。 这场冲突不仅关乎战争本身，更涉及到美国在中东地区的信誉。过去几十年，海湾国家一直相信只要依附于美国就能获得安全保障。然而，在此次冲突中，他们突然意识到这种信任变得岌岌可危。
四 | 沙特、土耳其和巴基斯坦等国在麦加签署共同防御协议，显示出对于美国保护伞的深度怀疑，这不仅是对伊朗的制衡，更是为了为自己保留更多的战略选项。 海湾国家重新考量与华盛顿的关系时，发现自己必须在全球政治中寻求新的伙伴和安全机制。这种转变所带来的影响，远比一次军事冲突本身更加深远。因为这种信任的裂痕，一旦形成，便会在未来的国际政治中持续发酵。
五 | 伊朗真的成为了中东的“新霸主”吗？卡根的文章在此提出了一个微妙的观点：伊朗在地缘政治上已成为绕不开的重要角色。它不仅掌控了霍尔木兹海峡，还开始对通过该海域的船只收取通行费。这一政策的推出，展现出伊朗在经济上的灵活性与主动性，也让其在地区安全事务中占据了更有利的位置。 真正的霸主不仅仅需要地理上的控制，更需要强大的经济基础、稳定的盟友关系和塑造国际秩序的能力。
六 | 目前，伊朗在经济上面临的压力依然严峻，货币贬值、通胀飙升以及石油出口遭受制裁的困境，使得其被称为霸主的根基尚且薄弱。
七 | 因此，尽管伊朗在多个方面展示了自己的影响力，但其经济短板以及周边国家的联合反制行动，仍然使其霸权地位受到制约。 卡根在文中提到：“战胜者不需要回到谈判桌前，除非是为了设定投降条款。”这句话犀利地指向了如今美国的窘境：在对伊朗进行长达五个月的空袭后，华盛顿发现自己不仅没有赢得战争，反而在设定和平条件的过程中显得无能为力。这不仅是伊朗的胜利，更是美国整个中东战略的系统性崩盘。
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